(Tea Party 247) – Yet again, we’re being told that the numbers of Americans who will die of the coronavirus is much, much lower than was originally projected.
The IHME model, on which the White House’s coronavirus task force has consistently relied upon to shape response measures to the global pandemic, took a sharp downward turn today.
It had been commonly believed that between 100k-200k Americans would succumb to the virus by August 4th, but now, that projection has been cut to 60.5k by that same date.
In a best-case scenario, we will “only” lose around 30,000, while a worst-case scenario would be just over 120,000.
So now, the worst that could happen is the best that could have happened just a few short days ago.
Things are looking up.
Matt Palumbo of Bongino.com notes:
It is a promising sign for our nation’s health that these revisions continue being made in one direction – downward.
Just the yesterday IHME projected that peak resource use would occur on April 15th, and that 3,130 people would die on the worst single day. The peak has since been moved to April 11th, and the peak isn’t as high, with 2,212 projected to die (30% fewer).
So what explains the revisions? I’m sure the changes will prove to be a Rorschach Test of sorts, with some arguing that the reduction in projected deaths is proof that social distancing is working, while others will it as evidence that the models overestimated the speed at which the virus would spread in the first place. After all, how can you reliably extrapolate the rate of spread from a population dense city like NYC to the rest of the country? In reality, the revisions are likely the result of a combination of both factors.
While it can hardly be considered a great victory if tens of thousands of Americans are still expected to die, he adds, it’s certainly a good thing that the number of those expected to die has been slashed in half in just a week.
While Americans are eager to discuss the re-opening of the economy despite the peak of the virus still ahead of us, this is definitely building the case for a light at the end of the tunnel.